Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.