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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.